Analysts Predict The Staggering Number Of Switch 2’s Nintendo Will Need To Satisfy Year-One Demand

Summary

• Pre-orders for Nintendo Switch 2 were chaotic in the US, with lengthy queues and canceled orders.
• Data extrapolation suggests 6.6 million global pre-orders for the console.
• Analysts predict Nintendo could sell over 20 million Switch 2 units in the first year, a potentially record-breaking result.

The lead-up to the Switch 2's launch has been a rocky one for Nintendo. Trump's on-again, off-again tariffs meant a delay to the North American pre-order date and a subsequent price rise for the console's accessories, and Nintendo Japan was so inundated with pre-order registrations that it released a statement saying it probably wouldn't be able to meet launch-day demand.

Pre-orders finally went live in the US last night, and as expected, it was a nightmare. Lengthy queue times, checkout issues, and canceled orders marred what should have been an exciting time for US-based Nintendo fans. Naturally, they're already being sold for obscene prices on the secondary market.

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Now, with demand evidently so high, a new report has found that Nintendo could need as many as 20 million units to meet audience needs for the console's first year.

Nintendo Could Sell 6.6 Million Switch 2s In Console's First Couple Of Weeks

Nintendo announced that it had received 2.2 million applications for Nintendo Switch 2 pre-orders in Japan. Bloomberg has reported that one research company, Pelham Smithers Associates, has extrapolated this data to find that, “As Japan accounts for a third of the global Switch installation base, it implies 6.6 million pre-orders globally.”

Currently, the record for best console launch is held by both the PlayStation 4 and PlayStation 5, which each sold around 4.5 million units within their first two months on the market. The Nintendo Switch 2 looks set to obliterate this number.

Expanding on his Bloomberg report, journalist Takashi Mochizuki suggested on Twitter that some analysts are predicting that, provided Nintendo can produce enough, the Switch 2 could sell over 20 million units in its first year. Given that currently, the system is considered to have a lackluster launch lineup, it's an incredible result for the company.

Last year, during an investor Q&A, Nintendo President Shuntaro Furukawa suggested that the company planned to stop scalpers by producing enough units to satiate demand, but with an unprecedented number of pre-order requests, a big question mark remains as to whether it will be able to do this.

Nintendo Switch 2