CEVO Season 8 Finals group stage predictions

Disclaimer: Keep in mind that these are merely predictions and should not be used as a guideline for betting on GosuGamers or on any other site. The statements here originate from statistics and previous matches and can thus not be held evidential for the win or loss of a team. The author as well as GosuGamers.net hereby distance themselves from any responsibilities in regards to betting losses.

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Group A – One favourite, two possible runner-ups

Virtus.Pro clearly demonstrate a dominant role in this group. Although having been beaten by Gamers2 at DreamHack Cluj, their performance overall indicates a strong advantage over the other teams.

The question going into this group is not whether it is probable for VP to win, but whether the other teams can (or will) upset them. Team Dignitas have looked a little weak recently, but that is mainly due to their roster change. For each passing day, Dignitas should regain strength as they bring their new player into the team’s harmony.

The other team with the potential to surpass all the others is Team Liquid. At DreamHack Cluj, they were unbelievably close to beating VP in the group’s first match but unfortunately got forced into overtime and lost. Their performance, however, was stunning and if they can keep that up, they will have a real chance to get out of the group stages unscathed.

Still, to predict the most probable outcome, it will come down to Liquid and Dignitas to fight it out in the decider match. The likelihood of VP sweeping through this group is high, analogous to the low chances of Team Conquest to prove a real upset. They have had a relatively decent run in this CEVO season, but only against North American teams. Their lack of experience against their European opponents might prove to be fatal as not many NA teams compete on a comparable level to their EU opponents.

Group B – One slight favourite, three possible runners-up

To begin, Natus Vincere are not a clear favourite for this group. Sure, they have technically surpassed Virtus.Pro by making it into the finals of Cluj, but to be fair, they had a relatively easy run. Having to compete against teams like Counter Logic Gaming and Luminosity was actually more of a struggle than it should have been for the Ukrainian team. Luminosity have brought it to 14 and 13 points in their respective games and CLG even managed to take a map off of Na’Vi. This makes it pretty tough to predict a definite outcome for this group. Mousesports have presented a decent performance against Gamers2 (the ones who put VP out of the last major and almost made it through to the finals). Luminosity beat fnatic, Titan beat NIP, both in the early group stages of Cluj.

Although their overall matchups show a slight dominance by Natus Vincere, it is not enough of a gap to deduct a definitive advantage from.

The other side of the equation remains fairly unanswered. Whilst Na’Vi has remained in quite a consistent form, mouz, Titan and Luminosity have had their peaks and valleys.
The German team has integrated Niko well into its roster and he has shown beautiful performances, as for instance the triple kill with his Deagle on de_mirage against Gamers2.

Titan had a pretty tough group to go through at Cluj, eventually being kicked out by both Virtus.Pro and NIP, who got revenge for their previous loss. Still, they have developed into being a force to be reckoned with.
The same can be said for Luminosity. They have made it into the last two majors, where they had to face fnatic and Na’Vi respectively. At Cluj, they finally got the upper hand over fnatic, sending them into the consolidation final of Group A. Na’Vi then was the point at which they got stopped, but keep in mind the fairly close score lines of 16-13 and 16-14.

All teams of Group B bear the potential to upset all the others. The probability of Na’Vi reaching the playoffs - by either two direct wins or at least through consolidation – should be the highest, although – as explained above – the other teams are coming in real close. It all comes down to which extent they can relive their recent performances.

From here on only time will be able to tell.

Though not being a major tournament, the CEVO Season 8 Finals may deliver the closest matches and the most unpredictable outcomes the CS:GO scene has seen for a long time.